At Foking Alpha, we dive deep into the trends shaping our economy, markets, and the world’s future—so you can make smarter moves today. As we kick off the week, let’s take a closer look at the dynamics of the Trump economy, the challenges it faces, and emerging themes that could redefine how we measure success.
The Trump Economy: A Second Act Under Scrutiny
Donald Trump’s return to the White House has sparked discussions about how his presidency—and his approach to the economy—will be judged. While traditional metrics like GDP growth and unemployment often steal the headlines, they fail to capture the underlying sentiments of economic discontent.
The US Paradox: By global standards, the American economy is thriving—outpacing peers in post-pandemic recovery. Yet, voter pessimism remains high, as highlighted in recent elections. This disconnect suggests that standard economic yardsticks may no longer resonate with the realities faced by everyday Americans.
Here are three critical themes to watch during this presidency:
1. Inequality
Economic inequality remains a glaring challenge. During Trump’s first term, income inequality widened and continues to hover near historic highs. The manufacturing revival narrative has dominated policy discussions, yet factory employment as a share of total jobs is at its lowest point in history.
Beyond income, inequality in education and health outcomes exacerbates societal divides. Those without a college degree face shorter lifespans and fewer opportunities, underscoring the urgency of addressing structural disparities.
2. Housing Affordability
The dream of homeownership—long considered a cornerstone of the American Dream—has become elusive for many. Rising home prices and stagnant wages have priced millions out of the housing market, making access to affordable housing a pivotal measure of economic progress during Trump’s second term.
3. Technology’s Double-Edged Sword
Trump’s open support for tech disruptors like Elon Musk, AI, and crypto signals a new chapter in the relationship between government and Silicon Valley. The outcomes of this alliance could swing in two vastly different directions:
- Optimistic Path: Innovation drives productivity, wealth, and solutions to major crises. AI empowers workers, and crypto fosters financial inclusion.
- Dystopian Reality: Unregulated AI accelerates job displacement, concentrates power among tech oligarchs, and deepens societal divides, while another crypto crash destabilizes markets.
Biden’s warning about a new gilded age of inequality casts a long shadow over this potential trajectory. Whether Trump’s policies mitigate these risks or exacerbate them will shape voter sentiment in 2028.
Emerging Themes for 2025 and Beyond
We’ve heard from our readers about what’s keeping them up at night in 2025. Here are a few themes we’re tracking:
- The Hidden Cost of Isolationism: A growing wave of anti-globalism is reshaping geopolitics and trade. From travel to capital markets, the financial and social costs of isolationism are becoming harder to ignore.
- Drone Proliferation: The increasing use of drones in warfare and terrorism highlights the need for stronger oversight and innovation in defense systems.
- Health Preparedness: The looming threat of avian flu has prompted renewed attention to rapid detection and containment technologies.
- Crypto Conundrums: Despite skepticism, crypto’s role in financial systems remains a hot topic, with readers wondering: Is it worth holding, and if so, why?
Market Watch: The Week Ahead
The markets will kick off with high expectations, but all eyes are on Trump’s first wave of executive orders and their implications for businesses and investors. Key events include:
- Earnings Season Continues: Heavy hitters like Netflix, Procter & Gamble, Johnson & Johnson, and American Express will reveal their financials this week, offering a pulse check on consumer demand and corporate resilience.
- Global Economic Data: Watch for inflation reports from Canada and South Africa, GDP data from South Korea, and a potential rate hike by the Bank of Japan.
- TikTok Ban: The US ban on TikTok begins Sunday, adding a new wrinkle to the tech landscape.
Opportunities and Risks on the Horizon
Dividend Investing in 2025:
Dividend stocks remain a cornerstone of stable portfolios, providing both income and a hedge against inflation. Keep an eye on top opportunities to build resilient strategies for the year ahead.
AI, Crypto, and Innovation:
With new technologies dominating policy and market discussions, understanding their potential—and their risks—has never been more critical.
Conclusion
As we dive into a new political and economic landscape, Foking Alpha will continue to explore the trends shaping markets and lives. From inequality to innovation, housing to global geopolitics, our mission is to give you the insights needed to navigate the future with confidence.
Stay tuned for more stock signals, trading ideas, and deep dives into the forces moving the markets.